In the South China Sea (SCS), a conflict between China and its neighbors, including Vietnam, has been steadily increasing. This dispute centers around territorial claims and control of valuable resources. Recently, China’s stance on Vietnam’s activities in the region has come under scrutiny, especially as both countries continue to bolster their presence on disputed islands. While China has been vocal and punitive towards the Philippines’ activities in the region, it has been quieter about Vietnam’s expansion efforts. However, there are signs that China’s patience may be running out.
Vietnam has been expanding its islands in the South China Sea, constructing airstrips, harbors, and other military infrastructure on islands that it claims. These activities have raised alarms in China, especially as some Chinese experts worry that these upgrades could give Vietnam an advantage in projecting military power. In addition, Vietnam’s growing ties with the United States and Japan have further raised China’s concerns. There is a fear that these alliances could strengthen Vietnam’s military position, especially as Vietnam is significantly outmatched by China in terms of naval capabilities.
Vietnam’s Delicate Position: Balancing Diplomacy and Sovereignty
Vietnam’s response to China’s growing pressure has been one of careful diplomacy. On the one hand, Vietnam has made it clear that it wishes to peacefully settle disputes with China through dialogue and cooperation. However, on the other hand, Vietnam has continued to strengthen its positions on the islands it controls, especially as it braces for potential Chinese aggression. This dual approach of peaceful diplomacy coupled with military preparedness has been Vietnam’s way of managing the delicate balance of asserting its sovereignty while avoiding a full-blown conflict with China.
The problem for Vietnam lies in the fact that China has shown it is willing to use force when it feels its territorial claims are being challenged. In the past, China has sent oil rigs and survey ships into disputed waters, leading to standoffs with Vietnam’s maritime forces. During these events, Vietnam has been able to hold its ground and maintain its position without escalating tensions into outright warfare. However, as China continues to strengthen its military presence in the South China Sea, Vietnam’s options for maintaining its sovereignty become increasingly limited. The situation becomes even more complex as China’s “gray zone” tactics, such as harassing Vietnamese fishermen and sending survey ships into Vietnamese waters, have not been enough to deter Vietnam from fortifying its islands.
Despite Vietnam’s growing capabilities and resolve, it is clear that the country faces a serious challenge. Vietnam has few options for defending itself against China’s superior military power. It cannot afford to engage in direct military conflict with China, as the consequences could be disastrous. At the same time, Vietnam cannot simply back down, as doing so would undermine its sovereignty and encourage China to expand its control over the South China Sea. The only viable option for Vietnam is to continue fortifying its islands while engaging in diplomatic efforts to avoid Chinese military retaliation.
China’s Military Threats and the Risk of Escalation
China’s approach to Vietnam’s island expansion has been measured but increasingly coercive. While the Chinese government has yet to launch military attacks, its threats have been explicit enough to compel Vietnam to back down in the past. For instance, in 2017, China threatened to attack Vietnamese bases in the Spratly Islands if Vietnam did not cease oil drilling activities. In response, Vietnam quickly halted its drilling, despite the significant financial costs involved. This pattern of China using military threats to force Vietnam into submission has been a consistent feature of the dispute.
China’s strategy has been to apply subtle pressure through gray zone tactics, such as disrupting Vietnam’s fishing industry and deploying military ships to contested waters. While these actions have been irritating and damaging to Vietnam, they have not yet resulted in direct military conflict. However, if China decides to take a more aggressive stance, it could impose harsher measures such as blockading Vietnamese islands or attacking military outposts. Such actions would force Vietnam into a corner, where it would have to either comply with China’s demands or risk full-scale military confrontation. Given Vietnam’s limited naval capabilities, it would be unable to resist Chinese aggression for long.
Growing Tensions in the South China Sea
The tension between China and Vietnam highlights the power imbalance in the South China Sea. While Vietnam continues to assert its claims and fortify its positions in the South China Sea, China has the military strength to impose its will. Any escalation in China’s actions could lead to a larger regional conflict, with Vietnam finding itself at a significant disadvantage. The prospect of military conflict remains a major concern for both countries, as the cost of war would likely outweigh the potential benefits for either side. Yet, for Vietnam, standing up to China’s coercion in the South China Sea is a matter of national pride and sovereignty.
As the South China Sea dispute continues to evolve, Vietnam will face increasing pressure from China. The next steps in this ongoing conflict are uncertain, but the balance of power will remain crucial in determining the future of the region.
