Recent joint air force exercise known as Falcon Shield Exercises held between the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and China are raising concerns about potential information gathering on Western aircraft by Beijing.
Falcon Shield Exercise
The UAE Air Force and China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) began Falcon Shield, a joint air force exercise in China’s Xinjiang province. This region is notably the site of ongoing genocidal persecution of Uyghur Muslims by the Chinese state. Satellite imagery indicates that the exercise was held at the PLAAF’s Hotan Airport in Xinjiang, a location used for similar exercises in 2023.
Concerns Over Military Technology Exposure
A significant concern is the type of aircraft used by the UAE in these exercises and the potential information China could gather about military technology. The 2023 and 2024 iterations of Falcon Shield involved the UAE deploying at least six Dassault Mirage 2000-9DAD/EAD fighter ground-attack aircraft.
The inclusion of the Mirage 2000 fighter jets is particularly troubling. These French-built jets are widely used by Western states and are a key component of the Taiwanese air force. Taiwan, which China considers an inseparable part of its territory, has been the target of increasing Chinese military threats. The close proximity allowed by the UAE’s participation could enable Beijing to gather vital information on how to combat the Mirage 2000, potentially aiding in a future conflict with Taiwan.
Implications for Western Military Technology
The UAE’s involvement in Falcon Shield offers China an opportunity to familiarize itself with the Mirage 2000’s performance and capabilities. This includes the possibility of dissimilar air-combat training, which can provide insights into the aircraft’s operational strengths and weaknesses. Such training exercises between countries that operate Western military technology and China are becoming more common, involving nations like Pakistan, Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, and even indirect exercises with the UK and US. However, the UAE’s direct participation inside Chinese territory with the PLAAF is particularly concerning.
As the host nation, China can monitor military technology like the Mirage 2000 overtly or covertly. This includes gaining insights into radar identification of jets and their capabilities, which could have significant implications for Western military strategy and technology.
The joint exercises allow China to attain “familiarisation with the Mirage 2000 and its performance and capabilities, as well as the possibility of dissimilar air-combat training.” This level of access can help China understand how the Mirage 2000 operates in various combat scenarios, providing them with critical data to enhance their own military tactics and technology.
Growing Military Ties
The UAE and China’s military ties have grown considerably in recent years, with the Gulf state seeking to decrease its reliance on the US, leading to friction with Washington. The Biden administration warned the UAE in 2021 about the construction of a suspected Chinese military base in the Gulf state. Although construction was allegedly halted after US officials indicated it would severely damage US-Emirati relations, further construction was detected by US intelligence in December 2022.
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The increasing military cooperation between the UAE and China, exemplified by the Falcon Shield exercises, underscores the geopolitical shifts and the potential risks associated with sharing advanced military technology. This dynamic poses significant challenges for maintaining the security and technological superiority of Western military assets.
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Regional and Global Implications
The growing military collaboration between the UAE and China is not an isolated phenomenon but part of a broader trend of increased Chinese influence in the Middle East. As China expands its Belt and Road Initiative and establishes stronger economic and military ties with countries in the region, its strategic interests and capabilities are also expanding.
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For the UAE, balancing its traditional alliance with the US while fostering closer ties with China presents a complex diplomatic challenge. The UAE’s desire to diversify its international partnerships is understandable, but it also comes with risks, particularly regarding the potential leakage of sensitive military technology to China. Falcon shield exercise is a beginning of the new era.
Espionage Concerns of Falcon Shield Exercise
Espionage is a significant concern in any joint military exercise, especially when it involves advanced military technology. By participating in exercises like Falcon Shield, the UAE may inadvertently expose critical information about the Mirage 2000’s capabilities, vulnerabilities, and operational strategies. This information could be invaluable to China in enhancing its own military technology and developing countermeasures against Western aircraft.
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The potential for espionage extends beyond the immediate context of the joint exercises. The data and insights gathered during these exercises could be used by China to refine its electronic warfare tactics, improve its radar systems, and develop more effective air-to-air and surface-to-air missiles. This would not only enhance China’s military capabilities but also pose a direct threat to countries operating the Mirage 2000 and similar Western aircraft.
Strategic Implications for Taiwan
Taiwan is particularly vulnerable in this context. As one of the primary operators of the Mirage 2000, Taiwan relies on this aircraft for its air defense. Any information gathered by China about the Mirage 2000’s performance and capabilities could be used to develop strategies and technologies to neutralize this critical component of Taiwan’s defense.
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The growing military ties between the UAE and China could thus have far-reaching implications for the security of the Asia-Pacific region. As China continues to assert its territorial claims over Taiwan and expand its military presence in the South China Sea, the information gathered through exercises like Falcon Shield could be leveraged to increase its strategic advantage.
