A major shift is happening in the global oil market, and it starts in Canada. China has now become the top buyer of canadian oil. For years, most of Canada’s oil nearly 90% was sent to the United States. This was mostly due to the landlocked status of Alberta, the largest oil-producing province in Canada. That means oil from Alberta could only reach buyers outside North America through the U.S. pipeline system. But that has changed, thanks to a massive new project called the Trans Mountain Pipeline Expansion.
Canada now has access to the Pacific Ocean thanks to this pipeline. It starts in Alberta and ends on the West Coast in Burnaby, British Columbia. From there, oil can be loaded onto ships and sent to other countries. The expansion officially began full operations in May 2024, tripling the pipeline’s capacity to nearly 900,000 barrels of oil a day. That’s like adding more lanes to a highway so more traffic can flow through.
The idea was that this new pipeline would let Canada sell more oil to different countries, especially in Asia. It turns out that China has become the biggest customer for this oil—something that many people did not expect.
China Steps In as U.S. Steps Back
In the past, it was believed that most of the oil from the Trans Mountain expansion would go to refineries on the U.S. West Coast. These refineries have long-standing relationships with Canadian oil producers and are located nearby. But things changed after the U.S. launched a trade war and imposed tariffs on several Canadian goods. Even though oil wasn’t directly taxed, the relationship between the two countries became tense.
At the same time, the United States placed sanctions on oil coming from nations like Venezuela and Russia. That made those oil sources less attractive to global buyers. China, one of the world’s largest consumers of oil, began looking for new and reliable suppliers. Canada fit the bill.
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China received an average of 207,000 barrels of oil per day from the pipeline in the year after the start of the Trans Mountain expansion. That’s a huge jump from the mere 7,000 barrels a day it got in the past ten years. During the same period, the U.S. received around 173,000 barrels a day from the pipeline—less than China.
This change is especially surprising because China usually gets a lot of its oil from Russia, which can offer lower prices. But political risks and the fear of relying too much on one country have made Chinese companies diversify where they get their oil.
Rising Oil Exports and Pipeline Challenges
Overall, Canada’s oil exports to countries other than the U.S. went up nearly 60% in 2024, hitting a record of about 183,000 barrels a day. Besides China, countries like South Korea, Japan, India, Brunei, and Taiwan are also buying Canadian oil. This shows how important the Trans Mountain pipeline has become in shifting global oil flows.
Even with this success, the pipeline is not yet being used to its full capacity. In 2024, it ran at about 77% capacity—slightly below the 83% that was expected. One reason is the high cost of using the pipeline. These fees were raised to cover the cost overruns during construction, which made it more expensive for companies to ship oil through it.
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Despite these challenges, the Canadian government-owned pipeline has already made a significant impact. It has helped Canada reduce its dependence on the U.S. market and allowed it to reach buyers in Asia. It has also brought attention to the need for even more infrastructure that could help Canada export oil through other coastal points.
Some Canadian leaders have called for more pipelines to be built, but financial, political, and regulatory hurdles make it difficult. For now, the Trans Mountain expansion stands as a key player in Canada’s oil export story reshaping trade routes, especially during times of global political tension.
The shift is clear: while the U.S. once stood as Canada’s number one oil buyer, it’s now China that’s filling that role, thanks to a pipeline built to open new doors.
