The US government has been placing heavy tariffs on goods coming from China for several years now. These extra taxes on imports started during Trump’s first term as president and were largely continued by the Biden administration. The goal was to reduce China’s influence on the US market and encourage more American-made products.
Official US data suggests that the tariffs have worked, reducing China’s share of total US imports from 21.6% in 2018 to 13.4% in 2024. This looks like a big drop, and in dollar terms, US imports from China reportedly fell by $66 billion. However, new research suggests that this data may not be telling the whole story.
According to China’s own records, the decline is much smaller. Instead of a sharp drop, China’s numbers show that its exports to the US only fell by 2.5 percentage points. Even more surprisingly, in dollar terms, China reports that its exports to the US have actually increased by $91.2 billion, reaching a total of $524 billion.
This means that there is a significant gap between what the US says it is buying from China and what China says it is selling to the US. The difference could be due to various factors, including how imports are recorded, goods coming in through third countries, or even companies finding ways to avoid higher tariffs. Whatever the reason, the data shows that China is still supplying a large share of the goods Americans buy, despite the tariffs.
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Small Shipments Might Be Hiding the True Import Numbers
One major reason for this data confusion could be something called the “de minimis” rule. This is a policy that allows small packages valued under $800 to enter the US without facing tariffs or strict customs checks. In 2016, the US raised this limit from $200 to $800, and since then, small imports have skyrocketed.
Chinese sellers have taken advantage of this rule, shipping massive amounts of low-cost products directly to American consumers. Many of these small packages include clothing, electronics, and household goods bought from online platforms. Because these shipments bypass traditional import tracking, they may not be fully counted in official US trade data.
Experts estimate that these direct-to-consumer imports from China have increased by at least 50%, possibly even doubling in value. Some reports suggest that these small shipments exceeded $50 billion last year alone. If these numbers were included in US trade data, the decline in imports from China would appear much smaller.
This means that the impact of tariffs on China has likely been overstated. While large companies may have reduced their bulk purchases from Chinese manufacturers, millions of small individual orders continue to flow into the country, keeping Chinese businesses strong.
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New Tariffs Could Hit American Shoppers Harder Than Expected
Since returning to the White House, Trump has imposed a new 10% tariff on Chinese goods. This is expected to increase the price of many products Americans buy, from electronics to furniture. But the real shock could come if Trump also removes the de minimis exemption for Chinese goods, which he has already considered doing.
If that happens, the cost of these smaller direct-to-consumer imports could rise sharply. Chinese sellers might be forced to either increase their prices or cut their profit margins. Either way, US consumers would likely feel the impact.
Because so many low-cost products come from China, millions of American households rely on these imports to keep expenses down. If tariffs push prices higher, everyday shopping could become more expensive. Some businesses that depend on Chinese supplies may also struggle, leading to potential job losses in industries that rely on affordable goods.
The real impact of tariffs on the US economy may be much larger than originally thought. Official numbers suggest that imports from China have dropped significantly, but hidden factors like small shipments and different tracking methods tell a different story. If Trump’s policies continue to target Chinese imports, the biggest burden may fall not on China, but on American consumers.
