Recent research suggests that US sanctions have unintentionally pushed China’s military and civilian technology sectors closer than ever before. According to a study led by a team from Northwestern Polytechnical University, these sanctions have broken down barriers that previously separated China’s military technologies from its civilian innovations. The research points to a significant shift in the way China develops and shares technology, especially since the early years of Donald Trump’s presidency.
US Sanctions Spur Tech Transfer in China
Before 2016, Chinese military and civilian technologies rarely mixed. The two sectors were cautious about sharing innovations with one another. The military was hesitant to work with civilian companies, fearing security risks, while civilian businesses worried that developing military technologies would scare off foreign investors. But this changed drastically during Trump’s first term in office.
According to the research, US sanctions played a major role in this shift. The Trump administration imposed strict measures on Chinese companies like ZTE and Huawei, targeting key components such as chips that were essential for their operations. As a result, these companies found themselves cut off from important technology supplies from the US. The situation became even more complicated as many Chinese scientists with ties to the US were investigated by the US government, further straining cooperation.
Faced with these challenges, China was forced to rethink its approach to technology development. Unable to rely on foreign supplies and cooperation, Chinese companies turned to domestic solutions, especially in dual-use technologies — innovations that have both civilian and military applications. This forced collaboration led to what the researchers describe as a “revolutionary” increase in China’s ability to transfer technology between its military and civilian sectors.
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Rapid Growth in Dual-Use Technology
The study shows that, between 2015 and 2021, China saw a dramatic rise in its ability to transfer emerging technologies between the military and civilian industries. This shift was particularly noticeable during Trump’s first term, when sanctions became more aggressive. For example, in Shaanxi province, the capability to transfer dual-use technology nearly doubled in just one year by 2020. In Guangdong, the transfer of civilian technology for military use reached over 90%, something that was considered almost impossible just a few years earlier.
The rapid growth in these regions was due to a combination of factors. First, China’s manufacturing sector was at a critical stage of transformation. Second, the sanctions created a pressing need for China to become more self-reliant in emerging technologies like artificial intelligence, quantum science, and biotechnology. Without access to Western technology, China turned to its own military and civilian sectors to innovate independently. This process allowed China to not only bypass the US blockade but also develop new technologies with military applications.
In the past, a technological gap had been seen as a barrier to the military-civilian tech transfer. But in today’s China, the situation is different. When the military and civilian sectors are equally advanced in a certain technology, both sides are eager to work together. This mutual benefit has led to stronger collaboration between the two, further accelerating innovation in areas like aerospace, cyberspace, and new energy.
Regional Variations in Tech Transfer
The researchers also noted significant regional differences in how dual-use technology is developed across China. In the central military region, which includes Beijing, the conversion rate of civilian technology for military use was the highest. Beijing, as the political and technological center of China, has always had strong ties between military and civilian sectors. In the eastern military region, which includes Shanghai, the technology transfer rate also grew rapidly, driven by the city’s economic strength.
However, the southern military region, which includes Guangdong, showed the greatest potential for further development. Guangdong is home to tech giants like Huawei and ZTE, and the researchers believe that the region could see even greater advancements in the future. These regions are now seeing a surge in joint efforts between military and civilian industries to overcome the technological challenges imposed by US sanctions.
