Amid escalating tensions in the South China Sea, the Philippines has announced plans to purchase its first attack submarine. This move is seen as a shift in the country’s defence strategy, transitioning from internal counterinsurgency to external defence in response to China’s growing military presence in the region. However, the decision has sparked a debate among experts about the practicality and cost-effectiveness of this acquisition.
A Strategic Shift in Defense Policy
The Philippine government has stated that the procurement of a attack submarine is part of a broader modernization plan for its armed forces. This initiative aims to enhance the nation’s capabilities to protect its sovereignty and territorial rights against external threats, particularly from China. Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. emphasized the need for a more robust external defense mechanism during a speech in February, marking a significant policy shift.
A spokesperson for the Philippine Navy highlighted that the acquisition of a attack submarine symbolizes the country’s commitment to defending its maritime boundaries. “We may not be a large navy, but we will have a navy that can take care of our territorial rights and sovereignty,” he asserted.
Expert Opinions and Alternative Views
Despite the government’s enthusiasm, some defense analysts question the wisdom of investing in a submarine. Greg Poling, director of the Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, expressed skepticism. “There are a lot of folks inside and outside of the Philippine Navy saying, ‘maybe this isn’t the best use of our money,'” Poling told Business Insider.
Experts argue that the Philippines might achieve better defense outcomes by investing in more cost-effective and versatile weapons systems, such as drones and missile boats. These platforms could offer greater strategic flexibility and responsiveness in countering China’s activities in the South China Sea.
Historical Context and Ongoing Tensions
China’s expansive claims in the South China Sea, demarcated by the “nine-dash line,” have been a source of conflict for over a decade. Beijing asserts sovereignty over most of the sea, including resource-rich waters and numerous islands, leading to disputes with neighboring countries, including the Philippines, Vietnam, and Malaysia.
The Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines in 2016, stating that China’s claims had no legal basis under international law. However, China has refused to recognize the ruling and continues to assert its claims aggressively. This has led to numerous confrontations, such as the recent clash over the rusting ex-American ship Sierra Madre, which the Philippine Navy grounded on the Second Thomas Shoal in 1999 to assert its rights over the area.
Financial and Operational Challenges
One of the main concerns about the submarine purchase is the financial burden it would place on the Philippines’ defense budget. Diesel-electric submarines, which are the most viable option for the Philippines, can cost up to $500 million each. This expenditure could potentially consume the entire defense budget, as noted by Mark Manantan, director of cybersecurity and critical technologies at the Pacific Forum.
Moreover, operating a submarine requires a comprehensive support infrastructure, including a submarine base and a trained crew. The Philippine Navy’s current fleet consists primarily of small missile boats and patrol craft, raising questions about its readiness to manage and maintain a sophisticated and costly submarine.
Symbolic and Strategic Considerations
Despite the practical challenges, there are powerful symbolic reasons for the Philippines to acquire a submarine. It would mark a significant milestone in the country’s military modernization and demonstrate a commitment to external defense.
Squad Shield: US Prefers Philippines over India Amid Rising South China Sea Tensions
Additionally, it reflects the Philippines’ success in addressing long-standing internal conflicts, such as the Communist insurgency and the rebellion by Islamic militants in Mindanao.
The desire to keep up with neighboring countries is also a factor. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam all possess submarines, and the Philippines’ acquisition would align it with regional military capabilities.
Alternatives to Attack Submarine Acquisition
Many experts believe that instead of investing in a costly submarine, the Philippines should focus on acquiring more affordable and effective defense systems. The recent delivery of Indian-made BrahMos anti-ship missiles, with a range of around 180 miles, is seen as a positive step in this direction. These missiles, along with fast missile boats and drones, could provide a more practical means of countering Chinese aggression.
Greg Poling and other analysts argue that these platforms would offer better value for money and enhance the Philippines’ defense capabilities more effectively than a single submarine. “I don’t think that you’ll find any Philippine naval analysts who would stump for a submarine,” Poling said. “They want BrahMos missiles or fast missile boats.”
US, Japan, Philippines Meet to Combat China Influence
China’s Perspective
Interestingly, China may not be overly concerned about the Philippines’ potential acquisition of a submarine. Beijing is more worried about Manila’s strategic alliances, such as the recent agreement allowing Japanese military forces to use Philippine bases for live-fire training. This development marks a significant shift in regional dynamics and poses a more direct challenge to China’s ambitions in the South China Sea.
In the Shadow of Tensions: Philippines-USA Talks in the South China Sea
The Philippines’ plan to purchase its first attack submarine amid rising tensions with China represents a significant shift in its defense strategy. While the symbolic value of acquiring a submarine is undeniable, practical considerations regarding cost, operational capability, and strategic effectiveness suggest that alternative investments in drones, missile boats, and other systems might be more prudent. As the Philippines navigates these complex decisions, the broader implications for regional security and international relations will continue to unfold.
