The Belarusian regime, under Alexander Lukashenko, is once again using illegal migration as a tool to pressure the European Union. According to the Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine, large groups of migrants from Africa, the Middle East, and Afghanistan are being funneled through Belarusian territory—many of them aiming to cross into Poland, an European Union member state.
This tactic strongly resembles the events of 2021, when Alexander Lukashenko’s government was accused of orchestrating a migrant crisis to force the European Union to lift sanctions. That earlier attempt failed, only resulting in tighter restrictions and deeper diplomatic isolation for Lukashenko. Now, similar patterns are being observed again, raising alarm across European capitals.
A Coordinated Effort with Moscow?
Intelligence sources suggest that some of the migrants are entering Belarus through Russia, pointing to potential coordination between Alexander Lukashenko and Russian President Vladimir Putin. This collaboration could be part of a wider effort to destabilize the European Union’s eastern borders.
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Migrants are reportedly arriving from Libya, either directly or after traveling through Russian territory. Once in Belarus, they are issued visas and transported to areas near the EU border, where they attempt illegal crossings—most often into Poland. This process appears organized and well-supported, suggesting that it is being allowed, if not directly facilitated, by the Belarusian government.
Officials believe that this is part of a larger strategy by Alexander Lukashenko to monetize migration while using it as a tool for political leverage. His regime profits from visa fees and other transit costs, even as it increases pressure on neighboring EU countries.
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Lukashenko’s Political Blackmail Strategy
While Alexander Lukashenko is known for his close ties to Russian President Vladimir Putin, he is also seen as acting independently when it comes to short-term tactics. Foreign Intelligence Service of Ukraine stresses that he is careful not to provoke a full-scale crisis with the European Union. By keeping tensions just below a breaking point, Lukashenko maintains a line of contact with a few European countries, such as Hungary, which has consistently opposed mass migration.
Still, the Belarusian leader’s use of illegal migrants as a bargaining chip has been widely condemned. His government is accused of “migration blackmail,” where human lives are used to pressure Europe into lifting sanctions or softening its stance on Belarus.
Back in 2021, these tactics failed. The European Union stood firm, sanctions were expanded, and Lukashenko’s political isolation deepened. Yet, despite those outcomes, the same strategy is being repeated.
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Violence Rising at the Polish Border
Recent events along the Poland-Belarus border show that the situation is worsening. On July 14, a migrant reportedly attacked a Polish border guard while trying to enter the country illegally. The following day, on July 15, another group of migrants threw a Molotov cocktail at guards near the same border area.
In response, Poland has started an information campaign in seven countries. The goal is to warn migrants about the dangers of illegal crossings. It also aims to stop the lies told by smugglers and traffickers. These criminals make money by giving false promises to desperate people.
Despite these efforts, the pressure on the border continues to grow. The flow of migrants, the organized transit through Belarus, and the increase in violent incidents all point to a deliberate, state-supported operation. For Lukashenko, it is another tool in a long history of using people and crises to gain leverage on the world stage.