The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has developed a strategic approach to counter the United States’ military power in the Pacific, focusing on its advanced missile arsenal, particularly the DF-26B, dubbed the “carrier killer.” This intermediate-range ballistic missile allows China to target U.S. Navy warships and critical military bases such as Guam.
By leveraging these missiles, China aims to keep U.S. forces at bay during any conflict over Taiwan, thus enhancing its chances of successfully annexing the island. The U.S. must urgently reassess its defense strategies in the Indo-Pacific to counter this growing threat.
China’s Overwhelming Missile Arsenal
Realizing that they cannot defeat the United States in a conventional war—especially on the open seas—Beijing has resolved to avoid such a scenario at all costs. Beijing figured out long ago that any conflict with the West over Taiwan, for example, would be waged closer to China’s shores than America’s. And since most of China’s possible targets, notably Taiwan, are all reliant upon the U.S. military for their defense, China’s forces would enjoy the equivalent of home-field advantage.
The DF-26B: China’s Game-Changing Missile Arsenal Explained
The Dong Feng (DF)-26B is an intermediate-range ballistic missile that is a variant of the DF-26. This antiship ballistic missile version of the DF-26 is specifically designed to reach targets as far afield as the U.S.-controlled island of Guam. Since 2009, Guam has become the epicenter of U.S. military activity stationed in what is now known as the Indo-Pacific. That island, which is about 4,000 kilometers from China’s shores, is home to a wide range of American military systems and personnel. The airfields of Guam, for instance, will play a critical role in any U.S. military engagement with China—which many experts believe is coming soon.
The DF-26B would allow for Chinese forces to target those fixed positions and remove Guam as a base for the Americans in the event war between China and the United States over Taiwan erupts.
From a “Carrier Killer” to a “Ship Killer”
The DF-26B allows China to target U.S. Navy warships operating near regions China considers to be within its sphere of influence. This capability means that all those expensive U.S. Navy warships—notably aircraft carriers—will be vulnerable to attack from the DF-26B. The DF-26B carries the nickname “carrier killer.”
A 2022 United States Department of Defense analysis of China’s missile capabilities indicates “significant increases across the board” in terms of China’s missile arsenal. China increased the number of intermediate-range ballistic missiles, like the DF-26B from 300 in 2021, to 500 just a year later. By now, they must have over a thousand of these systems. That’s more than enough to stymie any U.S. Navy attempt to bring its forces closer to Chinese shores, during the outbreak of war.
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And that’s the point. China doesn’t need to fight the U.S. Navy directly. Beijing’s forces just need to keep the bulk of American military power back long enough for their forces to achieve their objectives. It’s all about playing keep-away. In so doing, without a consistent, reliable U.S. military intervention directed against a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, China’s forces will have the opportunity to run roughshod over the region.
There are about 250 DF-26 launchers that are able to be reloaded, as there are an estimated two missiles for every launcher, meaning China could quickly overwhelm an adversary’s defenses with a barrage of DF-26s, which China says is capable against large and medium-sized ships. In fact, there are so many DF-26 launches scattered throughout China’s defensive perimeter that these weapons are more than just carrier killers. They’re general “ship killers”.
The Strategic Implications for the U.S.
The introduction and rapid expansion of China’s DF-26B missile arsenal have significant implications for U.S. military strategy in the Indo-Pacific. The ability to target U.S. Navy warships and bases such as Guam from a distance provides China with a formidable means to deter U.S. intervention in a conflict over Taiwan. This strategic advantage allows China to project power and influence in the region without engaging in direct naval confrontations with the U.S.
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The U.S. military’s traditional reliance on aircraft carriers and other large naval assets for power projection in the Indo-Pacific is increasingly challenged by the DF-26B. These missiles can strike moving targets at sea, making U.S. carriers and their supporting vessels vulnerable. The risk posed by these advanced missiles necessitates a reevaluation of U.S. force posture and defense strategies in the region.
Rethinking U.S. Defense Strategies
To counter the growing threat posed by China’s DF-26B missile arsenal, the U.S. must consider several strategic adjustments:
- Dispersal of Forces: U.S. forces in the Indo-Pacific may need to be dispersed more widely to reduce the risk of being targeted by China’s missiles. This could involve using smaller, more agile naval units and increasing the use of airbases and facilities across a broader area.
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- Enhanced Missile Defense: Strengthening missile defense systems in the Indo-Pacific is critical. This includes deploying advanced missile defense platforms on ships, as well as on land, to protect key assets and bases from ballistic missile attacks.
- Increased Presence of Submarines: Submarines, which are less vulnerable to missile strikes than surface vessels, could play a more prominent role in U.S. naval strategy. Expanding the fleet of attack submarines and enhancing their capabilities would help counter China’s missile threat.
- Technological Advancements: Investing in new technologies, such as directed-energy weapons and electronic warfare capabilities, can provide additional means to counter ballistic missile threats. These technologies could help neutralize or disrupt incoming missiles before they reach their targets.
- Alliances and Partnerships: Strengthening alliances and partnerships in the Indo-Pacific is essential. Collaborating with regional allies on missile defense, intelligence sharing, and joint military exercises can enhance collective security and deter Chinese aggression.
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China’s DF-26B missile arsenal represents a significant challenge to U.S. naval dominance and strategic interests in the Indo-Pacific. By developing and deploying these advanced missiles, China aims to deter U.S. intervention in a conflict over Taiwan and assert its influence in the region.
As China continues to expand its missile capabilities and assert its strategic ambitions, the U.S. faces a critical juncture in its defense planning. The ability to effectively counter China’s missile threat will determine the U.S.’s ability to project power and maintain stability in one of the world’s most strategically important regions.
