The revolution in artificial intelligence (AI) technologies in recent years is not just a technological phenomenon, but also a catalyst for profound structural changes in the system of international relations. It is obvious that AI technologies are becoming a new significant critical factor determining the balance of power in world politics. A natural question arises: how is the configuration of the global order transformed under the influence of technological competition in the field of AI?
From Unipolarity to Multipolarity: A New Global Context
The modern international political system is currently undergoing a transition from a unipolar to a multipolar model, which creates unique conditions for competition in AI between state actors at different levels. Conceptualizing the phenomenon of AI development in the context of international relations theory requires a transdisciplinary approach that combines political science, economics, and technology analysis. Recent studies have demonstrated that artificial intelligence functions as an “enabling technology,” similar to an internal combustion engine. This analogy helps us understand the significance of the mechanisms of AI influence on international competition and the geopolitical balance of power.
Unlike the bipolar confrontation of the Cold War, modern competition is characterized by multiple centers of power and complex patterns of interaction. The main characteristics of this new paradigm probably include the decentralization of relevant technological resources, the formation of regional AI hubs, and the strengthening of the role of middle-tier countries in the global AI ecosystem. The transition to a multipolar world has a contradictory effect on the development of AI technologies. On one hand, the plurality of centers of power contributes to the diversification of research and development, reducing the risks of technological monopolization. On the other hand, the fragmentation of the global space for AI development may lead to the creation of incompatible technological standards and limitations on international cooperation.
Global Artificial Intelligence Competition and the Rise of “AI Blocs”
Modern research points to the formation of “AI blocs” — groups of countries united by common approaches to the development and regulation of artificial intelligence. This trend reflects geopolitical contradictions and can potentially lead to the creation of AI ecosystems with limited interaction. Technologies are set to become one of the most important factors of economic and geopolitical competitiveness in the 21st century. The current configuration of global competition in AI technologies is determined primarily by the US–China rivalry. The EU is essentially forming a third pole of AI competition, focusing on ethical aspects and regulatory mechanisms. The European AI development strategy is characterized by an attempt to create “digital sovereignty” and develop an alternative model for managing AI technologies.
States with advanced capabilities in artificial intelligence development gain significant advantages in automating production, optimizing supply chains, personalizing services, and creating new business models. This creates promising “dividends” for those countries that get ahead of their competitors and successfully realize the benefits of AI technologies, which, in turn, will potentially increase economic inequality between countries. An analysis of current trends allows us to formulate several possible scenarios for the development of global competition in AI technologies in a multipolar world.
Scenarios of Global Artificial Intelligence Development
The first scenario assumes further fragmentation of the AI development horizon and the formation of closed or national technological ecosystems. The second scenario is based on the creation of international mechanisms for managing AI development and standardization. The third scenario assumes the dominance of one or two main players while displacing other participants. Current circumstances point to a move towards the first scenario, characterized by increasing technological “nationalism” and the creation of regional geopolitical “AI blocs.” However, the global nature of AI developments and the interdependence of technology chains create incentives for international cooperation and outline new promising opportunities for strategic planning and forecasting.
Regulatory Models: EU, US, and China
The capabilities of generative models have attracted particular attention in recent years, and today there are already a variety of international and national standards and regulations governing the use and development of generative algorithms. The “Bletchley Declaration,” signed in the UK on November 1, 2023, has become a major step in regulating artificial intelligence at the international level. According to Stanford University’s “AI Index Report 2025,” the US continues to lead in the development of top-tier models with 40 top models in 2024, but China has made significant progress in narrowing the gap, releasing 15 advanced models. Since the Bletchley Declaration, many countries have stepped up their artificial intelligence legislative initiatives, seeking to establish rules that will protect their national interests.
The EU takes a horizontal approach to regulating artificial intelligence. In 2024, the EU adopted the AI Act, a key regulation designed to fundamentally change risk control and user protection. This law classifies AI systems according to risk levels:
- Unacceptable risk — such systems are completely prohibited;
- High risk — mandatory registration in a special publicly accessible registry is required;
- Limited risk — transparency and user awareness must be ensured; and
- Minimal risk — requirements without special regulation.
Unlike the EU, the US has chosen a softer strategy. In 2023, President Joe Biden signed an executive order obliging developers of powerful AI systems to share the results of security tests with the US government. The order is aimed at protecting against fraud and disinformation, requiring the development of standards for detecting AI-generated content and authenticating official content. In this way, the US does not seek to hinder its companies in the fight for leadership, only controlling the possibility of using artificial intelligence to leak personal data and create fake news or weapons of mass destruction.
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China, in turn, demonstrates a vertical approach to regulating AI. The peculiarities of Chinese regulation include the need to obtain consent for the use of user images in deep synthesis technologies, a ban on the distribution of fake news, and mandatory authentication of the real identity of users. Developers are legally responsible for violations, including the distribution of subversive content and insufficient protection of personal data.
Towards Global Artificial Intelligence Governance
It should be noted that the Bletchley Declaration marked the beginning of a new stage of international cooperation in the field of AI, but it is also important to mention the UN, which actively advocates for the creation of a global AI governance system. The UN Secretary-General established the Advisory Body on AI, which develops international governance strategies. In its report, the body called for the creation of the first global, inclusive architecture for the governance of artificial intelligence. In November 2021, UNESCO member states adopted the world’s first global normative framework for the ethical use of AI. Additionally, in 2024, the Council of Europe approved the first international legally binding treaty aimed at respecting human rights in the use of artificial intelligence systems.
International cooperation after the Bletchley Declaration faces serious challenges, including a lack of general consensus and technological inequality. This is especially important in the context of a multipolar world. The Bletchley Declaration became a turning point in modern global regulation of AI. Technological rivalry between the US and China continues to escalate, and the gap between them is narrowing. The Russian Federation, the EU, and the UK are also actively building their own strategies to protect national interests in the field of AI, but many AI challenges require joint solutions through institutions such as the UN and UNESCO.
Thus, the effective development of artificial intelligence depends on the ability of the world community to find a balance between competitive national interests and global security. The Bletchley Declaration laid a precedent-setting foundation for such a balanced dialogue, but achieving this goal will require not only technological innovations, but also political wisdom from the leaders of all countries of the world.